Every major forecasting body agrees: 2026 is a “reset year” for South Florida real estate, not a rebound.
Here’s what the experts are projecting:
NAR (Lawrence Yun): Existing-home sales up 14% nationally. But South Florida’s condo segment may lag.
MIAMI REALTORS (Gay Cororaton): Buyer’s market through mid-2026. Excess condo inventory expected to be gradually absorbed by H1 2026.
Realtor.com: For-sale inventory expected to sit 12% below pre-2020 norms by year-end (improved from 19% gap in 2025).
Fannie Mae: Mortgage rates near 6% for most of 2026, potential dip to 5.9% by Q4.
Norada Real Estate: Florida median prices down ~1.9% (vs. national gain of +2.2%).
Bright MLS: “Reset year, not rebound.”
Segment Outlook
- Single-Family: Cautious optimism. 2-4% appreciation expected.
- Condos: Extended recovery. Meaningful price recovery unlikely before 2027.
- Ultra-Luxury ($5M+): Continued strength. Cash-driven, internationally fueled.
- Distressed/REO: Emerging pipeline. 608-day FL foreclosure timeline means late-2026 wave.
📊 Read our full 2026 forecast with county-by-county analysis →